Einstein’s unfinished symphony in the media

Our recent discovery of an unpublished model of the cosmos by Albert Einstein (see last post or here for a preprint of our paper) is receiving a lot of media attention, it’s very humbling. First off the mark was Davide Castelvecchi with a very nice article in Nature. Davide’s article was quickly reproduced in various outlets, from Scientific American here to the Huffington Post here. Trawling over the internet, I see newspaper and magazine articles describing our discovery in a dozen languages. It’s nice to see historical material receiving this sort of attention, I guess everyone loves an Einstein story.

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I’m also intrigued that it was the traditional media that picked up the story – with the exception of Peter Woit, no-one in the blogosphere seemed to notice our preprint or even a blogpost I wrote describing our paper. Perhaps we bloggers need the imprimateur of respected print journals more than we care to admit!

I notice one slightly misleading point in the electronic version of the Nature article is getting repeated everywhere. It’s probably not quite correct to frame Einstein’s attempt at a steady-state model of the cosmos in terms of a resistance to ‘big bang’ theories; there is no reference to the problem of origins in Einstein’s manuscript. Indeed, one of the most interesting aspects of the manuscript is that it appears to have been written in early 1931, at a time when the first tentative astronomical evidence for an expanding universe was emerging but the issue of an explosive beginning for the cosmos had yet to come into focus (e.g. the great debate between Eddington and Lemaitre later in 1931). It’s interesting that the initial mention in Nature of resistance to ‘big bang’ theories  is repeated in almost all other outlets, one can’t help wondering how many science journalists read our abstract. An honorable exception here is John Farrell at Forbes Magazine. John certainly noticed the discrepancy and no wonder – John has written an excellent book on Lemaitre.

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All in all, it’s been a lot of fun so far. I’m getting quite a few emails from distinguished colleagues pointing out that Einstein’s model is trivial because it didn’t work, which is of course true. However, our view is that what Einstein is trying to do is very interesting from a philosophical point of view  – and what is even more interesting is that he apparently abandoned the project when he realised that a consistent steady-state model would require an amendment to the field equations. In short, it seems the Great Master conducted an internal debate between steady-state and evolving models of the cosmos decades before the rest of the community…

Update

There is a very nice video describing our discovery here.

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Einstein’s exploration of a steady-state model of the universe

Some research news:

Last summer, in the course of our research into the Friedman-Einstein model of the cosmos (see this post or here for the article), I came across an unpublished manuscript by Einstein in which he explored a ‘steady-state’ model of the universe, i.e.,  a model of the universe in which space expands but the density of matter remains constant due to a continuous creation of matter from the vacuum. Such a model is radically different to previously known Einsteinian models of the universe, from his static model of 1917 to the evolving models he proposed in 1931 and 1932 in the wake of Hubble’s observations of the recession of the galaxies.  On the other hand, it bears some similarities to the famous  steady-state cosmic theories proposed by Hoyle, Bondi and Gold in 1948.

When was Einstein’s steady-state model written?

Several aspects of the manuscript suggest it was written in early 1931, after Hubble’s observation of the recession of the galaxies but before Einstein’s evolving models of 1931 and 1932. So it could be said that Einstein anticipated the general idea of steady-state models of the universe by almost twenty years!

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Einstein giving a lecture at Caltech in 1931.His attempt at a steady-state model 
was probably penned during his stay in the USA in early 1931

A discarded model

Why was Einstein’s steady-state model never published? The bad news is that the model doesn’t work, i.e., it contains a fundamental flaw that leads to a null solution, i.e., a universe empty of matter. It only looked like a viable theory because Einstein made a mistake in his analysis. There is evidence in the manuscript that Einstein spotted the problem on revision and this is almost certainly the reason he declined to publish the manuscript. So it’s a failed model. That said,  it is very interesting that Einstein didn’t anticipate that the particular approach model he used (a variation of the de Sitter model) would lead to a null solution, and even more interesting that when the problem became apparent, he declined to try again with a more sophisticated version. We see this as an important crossroads – it seems that on realising that a successful steady-state model would require amending the field equations of relativity, Einstein plumped instead for evolving models.

Who cares?

It could be argued that steady-state models are of little interest today because observations have shown unequivocally that we live in an evolving universe  (not to mention the fact that Einstein’s version didn’t work). All of this is true, but what Einstein is attempting to do is of great interest; the standard narrative that Einstein eagerly embraced evolving models of the cosmos on learning of  Hubble’s results because they allowed him to drop the cosmological constan, no longer seems entirely accurate. In his attempt at a steady-state model in the manuscript, Einstein retains the cosmological constant and even loosely associates it with the creation of matter from the vacuum. Most interesting of all, it seems that Einstein conducted an internal debate between steady-state and evolving models of the universe decades before a similar debate took place in the wider cosmological community.

Why was the theory not found before?

The manuscript was never published and was archived in the Albert Einstein Archives as a draft of something else, Einstein’s published 1931 model of the cosmos (also known as the Friedman-Einstein model). It was while researching materials relevant to the latter paper that we discovered the model (I nearly fell off my chair).  This sort of thing happens all the time in historical research – for example, we  also discovered a number of numerical errors  in the Friedman-Einstein model that no-one seems to have noticed before.

Where to find more on this

We have submitted a paper containing a transcription, translation and analysis of Einstein’s manuscript to the European Physical Journal (H) by kind permission of the Einstein Papers Project and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. A preprint of the paper can be found on the physics ArXiv at http://arxiv.org/abs/1402.0132

Update

Nature have a news article on our discovery here. It’s a nice article although the writer has confused Einstein’s reservations concerning a dynamic universe with his reservations concerning Lemaitre’s theory of origins (those come later). One of the most interesting aspects of the manuscript is that it seems to predate discussions of the issue of an origin for the cosmos. It’s interesting that Davide’s  error is repeated in outlets such as  Scientific American here and the Huffington Post here! There is a very nice video describing our discovery here

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Paradigm shift or slow dawning?

I have an article in The Irish Times today concerning the view of scientific progress articulated by Thomas Kuhn. The main point I try to make is that Kuhn’s famous idea of the paradigm shift in science  is much more popular with non-scientists than with the boffins themselves. Not because “Well, they would think that, wouldn’t they?” (Thank you, Christine), but because many of the examples cited by Kuhn in his influential book dated from antiquity rather than from modern science.

In particular, those scientists who read Kuhn notice that he paid very little attention to the manner in which false data tends to be quickly exposed by rival experimentalists, or to the way modern theorists tend to consider data in the context of all possible models. Most importantly, scientists studying the history of their own area typically find that scientific ‘revolutions’ tend to occur as extremely slow processes of discovery and acceptance – more a slow dawning than a paradigm shift. Indeed, they are really only paradigm shifts in retrospect.

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Thomas Kuhn, author of The Structure of Scientific Revolutions

You can read the Irish Times article here, and I have an older post on Kuhn from my Harvard days here (there is also a good discussion below that post).

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Einstein’s smallest blunder

At 17.45 GMT today, I carried out the final fuel checks on our Einstein paper, took a deep breath and hit launch (okay SUBMIT).

Over the summer, I came across quite a few references to a paper Einstein wrote on cosmology in early 1931, in the wake of Hubble’s first observations of the expanding universe (Ahemperhaps you mean  in the wake of Hubble’s observation of an apparent linear relation between the recession of the spiral nebulae and their distance, an empirical result that some theorists interpreted as evidence of an expanding universe – Ed ).

Like many Einstein papers, this paper is written in German, but unlike most Einstein papers  I could not find an English translation anywhere – pretty strange, given that this is Einstein’s first official  publication in the light of the new astronomical results (and given that he wrote very few papers on cosmology). So, with permission from the Einstein Archives, I spent the summer translating the paper with a colleague and adding hysterical remarks. Sorry, historical remarks. It was a most enjoyable project, with a few surprises along the way:

(i) Einstein’s 1931 paper offers a lot of interesting insights into his thoughts on the first tentative evidence for an expanding universe, but it does not say what a lot of science historians seem to think it says

(ii) Some calculations, where Einstein estimates values for the radius of the universe and the density of matter using Hubble’s results, seem to contain a fairly obvious numerical error

(iii) The same error can be seen in writing on a blackboard preserved from a lecture Einstein gave on the paper at Oxford University in 1931

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Einstein in Oxford – nice to know we all make mistakes

There has already been quite a bit of interest in our article, it seems your humble correspondent may have gotten lucky for once. Or we  might be wrong, in which case we’re going to look very silly. In the meantime, it looks like I’ll be doing a bit of traveling this year….

Update (Jan 2014)

Our article has now been published in the European Physical Journal (History). You can find the article here or a preprint on the Physics Arxiv here.

Update (Jan 2014)

Our article made the cover of EPJ!

EPJ cover

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Last day at COSMO13 in Cambridge

Today was the last day of the COSMO13 conference, a most enjoyable, if sometimes exhausting conference – so many seminars, not to mention a banquet in Trinity College last night.

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The conference finished this morning with lectures on dark energy from Ofer Lahav and Edmund  Copeland, on dark energy and modified gravity by Lam Hui and Claudia de Rahm, and on inflation by Richard Easther. The conference website is here and videos of the presentations will be available here in the next few days.

UPDATE: Videos of the plenary talks and pdfs of talks from the parallel sessions are  now available here.

If I had to summarize the conference in one sentence, I think the take-home message is that recent experimental results in both cosmology (from the PLANCK satellite) and particle physics (from the LHC) are strongly supportive of our basic models, giving strong confidence that our underlying theories are on the right track. The downside is that in each case, the fit is a teeny bit too good for comfort. There is a slightly worrying lack of evidence for physics beyond the standard models so far – a lack of evidence for supersymmetric particles at the LHC (although a low-mass Higgs is in principle good news for SUSY) and a lack of non-Gaussianities and parity violation in the PLANCK measurements of the cosmic microwave background. But the future is bright, especially considering the projected increases in luminosity at the LHC and the possible detection of B-mode polarization in the CMB by PLANCK.

That said, I agree heartily with Ofer Lahav’s comment that it is extraordinary to be living through a paradigm shift in cosmology, namely the discovery of the accelerated expansion (two paradigm shifts if you include inflation). Added to which we are now in an era of precision cosmology. Indeed, measurements of the cosmic microwave background by PLANCK are now reaching such a level of precision that it isn’t always meaningful to talk about agreement or tension with astrophysical measurements – the latter have quite a lot of catching up to according to George Efstathiou!

On a personal note, it’s extraordinary to see Dad’s work on supersymmetry reaching a whole new audience in cosmology, as supersymmetry breaking in the early universe  becomes a major area of research. I can’t tell you how many young researchers eyed my badge in astonishment and then started to quizz me about O’Raifeartaigh models!

Now the conference has finally ended, it’s nice to get back to work on my paper on Einstein’s cosmology in the 1930s – some of the talks here have given me some new ideas. I managed to finish most of the paper here, I’ll always think of it as my Cambridge paper!

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Gruber prize at Cambridge

There was some excitement at the COSMO 2013 conference at Cambridge yesterday evening, with the presentation of this year’s Gruber prize for cosmology. The prize went to Viatcheslav Mukhanov and Alexei Starobinsky, two Russian theoreticians who made legendary contributions to our understanding of the formation of structure in the early universe.  After a very nice ceremony, we got a superb seminar from each; Starobinksy gave a talk on ‘Quantum Beginning of the Universe’, while Muhkanov gave a moving and often hilarious account of a scientist’s life in the old Soviet Union .

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Mukhanov (L) and Starobinsky (R) accepting the Gruber prize

During the day, we had many seminars on the cosmic microwave background, notably by George Efstathiou and Jo Dunkley, and a talk by John Kovac on attempts to detect B-mode polarization in the CMB from ground-based telescopes. You can see the conference programme here. The Gruber ceremony was followed by a reception, so I didn’t get home until 10 pm.  All in all, a pretty full day.

Today, the talks are on large scale structure in the universe and quite a bit more technical (at least for your humble correspondent). On the other hand, there is quite a frisson in the room as Stephen Hawking has just arrived to catch Andreas Ringwald’s talk on axions. This evening, Professor Hawking and Brian Cox will each give a public talk as part of the conference, I’m looking forward to it.

Update

We had three public lectures this evening. Andrew Liddle on cosmology and the Planck results, Brian Cox on the LHC and the Higgs boson, and Stephen Hawking on space and time or  ‘Fire in the Equations’. Andrew gave his usual tour de force (see here for a review of his recent Dublin lecture), Brian gave a surprisingly mathematical lecture on the standard Model of particle physics, and Stephen stole the show with a truly inspirational lecture on space, time, the meaning of it all and why scientists need to stay curious. Just the thing for a jaded conference delegate with a paper to finish before he goes home!

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Brian Cox in action

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Stephen Hawking musing on the meaning of the universe

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COSMO 2013 at Cambridge University

Today was the first day of the COSMO 2013 conference at Cambridge. Walking up the path to the hallowed Department of Applied Mathematics and  Theoretical Physics (DAMTP), I was gripped by my usual fear that I might meet with a frosty reception at the door; “No experimentalists, please!”

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The hallowed halls of DAMTP

But it’s not that sort of conference. COSMO 2013 is a very nice mix of cosmology and particle physics, theory and experiment. You can see the conference poster and programme here.

This morning started with two contrasting plenary talks on particle physics; an experimental talk by Lars Sonneschein, and a more general talk ‘From the Higgs boson to Cosmology’ by well-known CERN theoretician John Ellis.

In his talk ‘Recent Results from the LHC’, Professor Sonnenschein gave a brief overview of recent results at the LHC, from current production rates of top anti-top quarks to the famous discovery of the Higgs boson. Much of this probably wasn’t that new to the audience given the number of Higgs talks last year, but it was good to see up-to-date information on the decay modes and coupling constants for the Higgs.The main point was that with more and more accurate measurements, there is still no evidence yet of any physics beyond the Standard Model, whether one was searching for dark matter, microscopic black holes or indeed supersymmetry (SUSY). On the other hand, there were grounds for good cheer for the experimentalists given the projections Lars gave for increased luminosity at the LHC in the next few years.

John Ellis’s talk took a very different tack. He starting by explaining why a light Higgs mass and weak couplings is a good result for supersymmetry (SUSY can stabilize a light Higgs), giving theorists yet another reason to take the theory seriously, despite the ecent narrowing of windows of possibility at the LHC (at least for minimal models). Professor Ellis then made a connection with cosmology, remarking that basic Wess-Zumino SUSY models can be shown to fit very well with many generic models of inflation;in particular, adding supersymmetry to the mix can give models that fit very comfortably within the recent PLANCK results (some fall well within the dark blue region in the famous Planck figure below). A colleague of a certain age commented to me afterwards  that he isn’t quite reconciled  with the way inflation has become the dominant paradigm in today’s cosmology; for my part, I can never get used to today’s discussions of  supersymmetry in both cosmology and particle physics, having grown up thinking of it as an obscure theory practised only by my father and a few colleagues around the world! Science truly evolves…

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Prof Ellis wearing his Standard Model t-shirt

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Generic SUSY versions of inflation can give models that fall within the most probable region (dark blue)

At question time afterwards, I commented that I was struck by the contrast between the two talks, i.e. the strong motivation for SUSY from theory but the lack of results so far at the LHC, and asked Professor Ellis whether he thought the first evidence for SUSY might indeed come from the cosmic microwave background rather than particle accelerators (I made a mess of the question, nervous for once!). He responded by pointing out that it took 40 years to find the Higgs in particle accelerators, thus we should not be too impatient.  This answer makes a lot of sense to me, I’m a bit dismayed at the way SUSY scepticism has quickly become almost as popular a sport as string theory scepticism. After all, theory is often decades ahead of experiment, particularly in particle physics…

There were two other plenary lectures after coffee, an overview of Dark Matter by Malcolm Fairbairn and a talk on neutrino masses by Silvia Pascoli. They were both excellent talks but there is so much going on I just can’t keep up! Also, Stephen Hawking is sitting three tables away, also working away at a computer – I’m going to tidy myself off to the afternoon sessions before someone mistakes me for a journalist and chases me out of the canteen!

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